More Thoughts On The College Over/Unders

July 20, 2009

One Team I Don’t Like

Clemson (8.5): I’m pretty shocked that this number is so high.  Clemson returns 8 starters on defense, which is good, but they also lost stars QB Cullen Harper, RB James Davis and WR Aaron Kelly from last year’s team.  This just seems like a 7 or 8 win team this year.  The early part of the schedule (at Georgia Tech, Boston College, TCU, at Maryland) will make or break the year for them.  If they split those games, which I think will happen, they have no chance at winning 9 games. 

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Oh Baby…The College Over/Unders Are Out!

July 20, 2009

Quick hitter tonight, but let’s get right into it with more to come throughout the week…

One Team I Really Like

Georgia Tech (8.5): These guys are loaded and ready to run (no, really) this year.  GT went 9-3 in the regular season last year during Paul Johnson’s first year, and they return all of the skill position players from last year, including ACC Player of the Year Jon Dwyer.  On top of that, they get Virginia Tech, Clemson, UNC, Wake and Georgia at home this year.  Their two toughest road games are at Miami and FSU, which are both totally winnable.  I see 9 or 10 wins for them this year, with an outside shot at getting in the BCS championship game.

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Thoughts On (Super-Early) Super Bowl Odds

July 19, 2009

Two Teams I Like

Atlanta Falcons (25/1):  I’m surprised that this number is so high.  The Falcons certainly have a lot of questions on defense — they lost/let go a ton of players — but they have a great defensive coaching staff and the players they brought in are younger and faster than the ones they let go.  Just think back to Keith Brooking and Lawyer Milloy getting roasted in the playoffs against Arizona if you need a refresher course.  But the offense should be even better than last year.  Matt Ryan looks like the league’s next great quarterback, Roddy White has established himself as a top-flight receiver, Michael Turner is the best running back in the league not named Adrian, and they brought in Tony Gonzalez to give Ryan a great option at tight end.  Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas and Jerious Norwood provide additional options on offense.  I like this team to win the NFC South and make a deep run in the playoffs.  With that in mind, 25/1 seems very, very low. 

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Too Much Over/Under Love – St. Louis Rams Edition

July 19, 2009

St. Louis (5.5)

Saying that the Rams are getting too much love is a tough call when all they have to do is go 6-10 to make me look stupid.  But make no mistake, this is a BAD team.  Let’s get right into it…

* Steven Jackson is the key player on offense.  Looking at his career, it seems that he was run into the ground during the 2006 season when he had 1528 rushing yards and 806 receiving yards on 90 receptions.  That was an incredible year, but he hasn’t done anything close to that in the two years since then.  He barely broke 1000 yards each year and his receiving totals have also declined.  Once running backs start to lose it, they rarely get it back, and that’s where I think Steven Jackson is at this point.  Despite the fact that he’s only 25 (which is insane because he’s seemingly been around forever), I think he’s on the downside of his career.

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Quick Note On Sports Gambling…

July 19, 2009

Quick note on over/unders for all the sports gambling virgins — the number next to the team’s name is the over/under according to the casino, which is Bodog.com (see link below) in this case.  So when I say “Tampa Bay (6.5)”, that means that if you bet the under you believe that Tampa Bay will win fewer than 6.5 games and if you bet the over you believe that Tampa Bay will win more than 6.5 games.  Pretty simple, right?  Ok good, we’re all on the same page now.  Enjoy (and feel free to comment below if you think I’m an idiot)!

Too Much Over/Under Love – Tampa Bay Bucs Edition

July 18, 2009

Tampa Bay (6.5)

I have no idea why this number is so high.  How in the world does Tampa win 7 games this year?  They have been consistently good over the last decade or so (the Dungy and Gruden eras) so maybe people are just assuming that it will simply continue, but I disagree wholeheartedly.  Yes, they did finish with a 9-7 record last year but that’s more than a little deceiving.  They were 9-3 and cruising to a cushy playoff spot and proceeded to completely melt down and finish the season with 4 straight losses, including a home loss to the Raiders. 

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July 18, 2009

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